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Election counting is complex when margins are close

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Covering election results in Verde Valley is not as easy as one might think. Some races involve counting votes in both Yavapai County and Coconino County, which can be decisive in determining the results of a close election. We often have elected officials, or those supporting various ballot measures, contacting us by text and email on election night to see what numbers we have to make sure they’re reading the results correctly.

The first drop on election night consists of just the early ballots cast before Election Day that were dropped off or mailed in, and those usually only account for about one-third to one-half of the total vote. Even though these numbers don’t take into account the day-of voting, we post the results after they come in around 8 p.m. so poll watchers on our website have some understanding of how the election may go. Over the course of the night — sometimes as late as 2 a.m. — the results can articulate how the race went between day-of and early voting. Come the Wednesday morning after the election, many if not most races have been decided one way or the other.

One candidate for Mingus Union High School District Governing Board, incumbent Carol Ann Teague, prematurely declared victory on election night when she was in second place for the three open seats, but only 70.4% of ballots had been counted. Her celebratory Facebook post received nearly 90 comments.

Her jubilation came much too soon, as she quickly dropped into third place as day-of votes were counted and ultimately fell to fourth place, losing her seat. She issued a mea culpa days later, dashing the hopes of her supporters who relied on the statement from a single candidate on election night rather than a news source like us or even the county’s election results website.

“We got swamped by Project 2025 and Moms for Liberty,” Teague claimed on Facebook, citing no evidence, while ignoring her own culpability,

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such as attacking a 16-year-old girl who questioned her board’s confusing and contradictory COVID-19 quarantine policies back in 2021.

Voters remember when officials insult children and punish them at the ballot box.

In the Yavapai County District 3 supervisor race, Democrat Nikki Check had a lead in early votes over Republican Lori Drake, but we did not call the race for her, although other media outlets that don’t understand the complexities of ballot drops, tabulation and new signature verification rules jumped the gun and called her as the outright winner, misinforming voters about a race that we knew would certainly tighten up.

We at Larson Newspapers, however, finally made the call for Check on Nov. 13, when the math was clear. Check ultimately won with a comfortable 226-vote margin after previously crushing her Democratic primary opponent, incumbent Donna Michaels, by 72% to 28%.

Michaels had only defeated then-incumbent Randy Garrison in 2020 by 179 votes by organizing a last-minute push against Verde Connect, which gained her support from Middle Verde residents, but they were redistricted out of District 3 following the 2020 U.S. Census.

After Michaels was elected, she improperly attempted to “terminate” two Planning & Zoning commissioners in the mistaken belief that she had the right to do so. One refused to bow to her pressure; the other resigned. Michaels then appointed one of her major campaign donors who was opposed to a project near his home to the vacant seat, thereby enabling him to kill it. As the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Michaels promised Jerome residents that they could cut in line to get vaccinations, violating both state and federal policy. The Yavapai County Board of Supervisors chairman publicly revoked her promise and rebuked her the next day.

For most of the rest of her term, Michaels maintained a lower profile, but consistently kept making promises to constituents that were never fulfilled. She attacked Northern Arizona Healthcare, which runs most of the region’s medical facilities, and was cited for a collision in a county vehicle. By the primary, voters simply had enough and wanted an alternative. Check was the alternative, but was also a respected figure in Verde Valley politics.

In the general election, given their years of community service, either Check or Drake would have been an excellent replacement for Michaels.

Voters who knew Drake as president of the Mingus Union High School District Governing Board largely voted for her, but most of Sedona and the Village of Oak Creek went for Check. While some smaller precincts leaned toward Drake, Check had support from communities whose residents knew her as the mayor of Jerome, through her work at Yavapai College or from her previous runs for the Arizona State

Christopher Fox Graham

Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rocks News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been featured in Editor & Publisher magazine. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."

Christopher Fox Graham
Christopher Fox Graham
Christopher Fox Graham is the managing editor of the Sedona Rock Rocks News, The Camp Verde Journal and the Cottonwood Journal Extra. Hired by Larson Newspapers as a copy editor in 2004, he became assistant manager editor in October 2009 and managing editor in August 2013. Graham has won awards for editorials, investigative news reporting, headline writing, page design and community service from the Arizona Newspapers Association. Graham has also been featured in Editor & Publisher magazine. He lectures on journalism and First Amendment law and is a nationally recognized performance aka slam poet. Retired U.S. Army Col. John Mills, former director of Cybersecurity Policy, Strategy, and International Affairs referred to him as "Mr. Slam Poet."

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