The spread of new COVID- 19 cases in the Verde Valley has continued to increase in the past week, with 110 new cases in the week from Tuesday, Oct. 27 through Tuesday, Nov. 3, a record for the highest one-week increase in the area since the pandemic began.
On two of the three benchmarks that the state has specified for virus rates and closures, Yavapai County has passed the “Minimal Transmission” category into “Moderate Transmission,” per the state’s new guidelines.
Cases per 100,000 stand at 83, higher than it had been during the low period of August through early October, but below the 100 threshold for “Substantial Transmission.” The two-week test positivity rate for Yavapai County is 8.8%, putting the county in “Moderate Transmission” as well.
Only on hospitalization metrics does the county remain in “Minimal Transmission,” with a total of eight confirmed or pending cases at Verde Valley Medical Center in Cottonwood and 19 at Yavapai Regional Medical Center in Prescott.
Under the current rules enacted by the Arizona Department of Health Services, if a county moves into “Substantial Transmission” in all three benchmarks, schools would be forced to return to virtual learning. This is a change from the previous standards that were used for school reopening, when a county was required to be in Moderate or below for all three benchmarks to resume in-person learning.
Cottonwood and Camp Verde have seen the biggest increases in new cases, with 40 and 28 respectively in the past week, leading to totals since the beginning of the pandemic of 383 and 232 respectively as of Wednesday, Nov. 4. Sedona has seen slightly slower spread, with 13 cases in the past week for a total of 143, while Cornville, Rimrock and Clarkdale are still at lower spread, with just six, eight and three new cases, bringing their totals up to 52, 73 and 77 respectively, while the Village of Oak Creek has risen by two to 41, and “other” within the Verde Valley has risen by one to four cases.
A May 12 Executive Order by Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey blocked local governments other than the state from implementing the kinds of stay-at home suggestions that shut down businesses in March and April without the governor’s direction.
“No county, city or town may make or issue any order, rule or regulation that conflicts with or is in addition to the policy, directives or intent of this Executive Order, including but not limited to any order restricting persons from leaving their home due to the COVID-19 public health emergency, or any other order, rule or regulation that was not in place as of March 11, 2020,” Executive Order 2020-36 reads in part.
Local leaders say they are mostly staying the course on the current COVID-19 restrictions that are in place, rather than seeking to be more aggressive toward the spread of the virus.
“The numbers are very concerning and trending in the wrong direction,” Cottonwood Mayor Tim Elinski wrote in an email. “What’s worse is looking overseas to see what’s happening there, with more lockdowns in Europe, etc. The last thing I want to see in Cottonwood is businesses closed down again. Avoiding this scenario will require everyone doing their part with sanitation, personal hygiene and face coverings. We have to be diligent in keeping our infection numbers low so we don’t squander all our hard work these past months.
“My mask mandate is still in place,” Elinski said, though there is no penalty for not wearing one in Cottonwood and Elinski was among many people not wearing a mask during the grand opening of a new brewery in Old Town Cottonwood last month.
“The governor’s Executive Order doesn’t allow any local ordinances/orders more restrictive than his orders, other than face coverings,” Elinski said. “So if businesses are closed down again it will be by his order, but again I hope we work together — distantly — to avoid this.”
“We are watching things closely and hoping things don’t get that bad,” Sedona City Manager Justin Clifton wrote in an email: “I would think the only measures we may have at our disposal are stricter enforcement of things like mask mandates and physical separation.”
An order imposed by Sedona’s mayor threatens a $2,500 fine or six months in jail as a class 1 misdemeanor for failure to wear a mask, though there are exemptions.
“We also continue to review Temporary Use Permit requests for things like special events in light of state and federal guidance and current circumstances with spread,” Clifton said. “The TUP is an administrative process and as you know we’ve erred on the side of caution in denying permits that we interpret don’t meet the spirit of the governor’s exemption to prohibitions on public gathering size.”
Clarkdale City Manager Tracie Hlavinka said that the town would continue with its mask mandate and its restrictions for town employees, but did not expect to enact any additional policies.
“This has served us well so far, so we will continue to operate that way,” Hlavinka said. “If we see it truly starting to spike in Clarkdale, we would recommend going to staggered schedule — what we did in April. Our mask proclamation is still in effect. We continue to have our businesses and everybody operate under those same precautions of 50%.”
Clarkdale also imposes a class 1 misdemeanor of a $2,500 fine or six months in jail for failure to wear a mask.
Camp Verde Mayor Charlie German said that he hoped that further shutdowns would not be necessary, pointing to how while cases have increased, hospitalizations have remained low.
“I don’t see [a shutdown] happening. First of all, they have a better understanding of how this COVID virus operates,” German said. “COVID cases is just one metric. If they say 20 cases in Camp Verde over the last week, that’s more than what we’ve had, but I’m not too concerned about it. It doesn’t mean a whole lot to me other than that it’s more than what we’ve had. What is a concern is if you tell me that 19 of those 20 cases are in the hospital, and the severity of those cases, that is really a red flag to me in saying, ‘Whoa, we’ve got a major issue here.’”
“I would emphasize that this is not just a single metric type calculus,” Clifton wrote. “So while increasing spread is certainly important, context of any spread — isolated vs. broader community spread — hospitalization rates, trends in death rates, rate of growth and/or change, new guidance from federal, state and county governments, etc., are all relevant to any consideration of action.”
