For the second week in a row, COVID-19 cases in the Verde Valley have shown low increase, leading to public health officials becoming more optimistic that the area has likely avoided the kind of outbreak that has led to high death tolls and overwhelmed health care systems in other parts of the state and the country.
As of Tuesday, April 21, Cottonwood had nine cases, Sedona had 11 and other areas in the Verde Valley had seven cases. This represents a total of 27 in the area, just two additional cases since April 8. The Cottonwood number was revised down after the county found three duplicate counts earlier this week.
The Prescott area has a total of 46 cases as of Tuesday, bringing the total cases in Yavapai County to 73, an increase of just 4.3% in the past week since April 14. This represents much slower spread than the 16.4% increase in the week from April 7 to April 14, which itself is significantly slower than the 133% increase from March 31 to April 7 or the 600% increas the week before.
“We’ve definitely slowed down from previous weeks,” said Stephen Everett, section manager for communicable diseases at Yavapai County Community Health Services. “Testing has increased but the number of cases per test has decreased. We’re definitely seeing better numbers when we compare to weeks prior. So we’re definitely slowing down. I don’t know if we’re quite over the hump but we’re definitely getting close.”
Previously, Everett had said that the low case numbers may have been a result of not enough testing. However, the high percentage of tests that have been coming back negative — 96.5% of the 2,045 tests in the county as of Saturday — suggest that the number of cases not being recorded by the tests is low. While there are likely numerous cases in the area the have not been tested yet, it is unlikely that a lack of testing is preventing health experts from catching a much higher rate of spread.
Lee Monroe, a phlebotomist at Sonora Quest in Cottonwood, confirmed that testing procedures in the Verde Valley happen at a steady pace, making it unlikely that testing problems were hiding a faster spread. While the actual test processing is handled by Sonora Quest labs in the Phoenix area, Monroe said that he believed that the process is moving smoothly at every step of the chain.
In a call with reporters on Thursday, April 16, Northern Arizona Healthcare administrators said that while Verde Valley Medical Center had expanded its capacity in preparation for a surge of COVID-19 patients, the hospital had not yet had to deal with a surge, and has found things to be moving mostly smoothly. The daily census has risen to 54 at the hospital, higher than the 31 it was a week ago, but still far below the hospital’s expanded capacity of 139.
“Our admissions at the Verde Valley Medical Center have been a combination local or community area patients affected by COVID, as well as some patients that have come to our facility from the Navajo Nation,” said Leon Pontikes, chief medical officer at VVMC. “What we are seeing is relatively flat numbers of admissions from our community patient proportion. We’re very thankful for the community and local businesses, etcetera, and we thank the social distancing policies that are in place. We feel that that is helping to flatten the curve. We have seen a stable number of local or community area cases for the last few days, or we might [even] be beginning to see a slight drop. We encourage the community to continue with all of the policies in place. We hope to see that the numbers peak won’t be as high as what was anticipated weeks ago, but of course as with so many things with this COVID epidemic, the answer still remains to be seen.”
Though VVMC has seen this good news, NAH administrators said Flagstaff Medical Center has taken in a high number of patients from the Navajo Nation. According to VVMC officials, the rate of spread on Navajo lands is comparable to places like New York and New Jersey, contributing to FMC becoming one of the busiest and most stressed hospitals in Arizona.
Everett tentatively said that if the rate of spread of COVID-19 cases in the county remains low, the area could anticipate a possible partial reopening some time in late May, though he stressed that any sort of reduction in social distancing guidelines would still mean high levels of precautions making things far from normal — bars would still likely remain closed, and restaurants and movie theaters would have to be open at only half or less capacity, for example.
“We’ve really done really well,” Everett said. “I’m really surprised we did so well. I’ll take it.”
“Stay vigilant,” Everett said. “Just because numbers are going down and decreasing — still try to keep social distancing. Be sure to wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. That’s the best way to do it.”
