Still over a year out, political candidates are gearing up for the 2016 presidential race.
No fewer than 18 people have declared or plan to declare their intention to run for the Republican nomination for president.
The list currently stands as U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz [R-Texas], Rand Paul [R-Ky.], Marco Rubio [R-Fla.] and Lindsey Graham [R-S.C.], New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former Sen. Rick Santorum [R-Penn.], former Govs. Jeb Bush of Florida, George Pataki of New York, Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Rick Perry of Texas, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, developer Donald Trump and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
Now try saying that list in one breath.
In recent memory, the de facto runner-up from the previous primary cycle is considered the front-runner for his or her party in the subsequent election. Clinton was bested by Obama in 2008 and has been the unofficial front-runner since, not-quite campaigning for 2016 since the start of Obama’s first term.
Sen. Bernie Sanders [I-Vt.] and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley recently entered the Democratic race to bring Progressive issues forward into the campaign against Clinton but faces O’Malley faces 12 to 1 odds and Sanders faces 33 to 1 odds of beating her, according to Las Vegas bookmakers.
Among Republicans, Santorum and Paul’s father, Sen. Ron Paul [R-Texas], were the de facto runners-up on paper in 2012, but were seen as protest votes to nominee Mitt Romney. Neither had the wealth nor political weight to carry the nomination to 2016. That means that for the first time since 1980, the Republican field is wide open with no real front-runner.
Rubio [4 to 1 odds] and Walker [4 to 1 odds] have the national name-recognition and fundraising ability to counter Clinton, as does Bush [15 to 8 odds, the highest in the pool], but both Clinton and Bush will be hampered by their family names and charges of creating a dynasty connecting them to previous administrations. Be assured that Bush’s recent indecisiveness about the Iraq War his brother began will come back to haunt him in attack ads and at both Republican and bipartisan debates.
The question is why are so many running when so few have a real chance? Politics, cynicism and Trump aside, these candidates are all bright people who have navigated into political offices, winning votes from across the aisle. Yet most must realize the undeniable futility of their campaigns. Some appear to be aiming for the vice presidential ticket, appointments in a Republican White House or to simply to raise their name-recognition for book deals, jobs as political commentators and pundits, and a few for a more viable campaign in 2020.
What that means for us, the plebeians in the electorate, is we should brace ourselves for millions of dollars of advertisements on radio, television and our mailboxes and a slew of debates where podium space will be hard to find.
Arizona voters don’t lean toward any of the candidates in particular, making our state a battleground for these candidates leading up to our primary on Tuesday, March 22.
The cycle of attack ads will begin sooner than ever and with tens of millions of dollars of “dark money” issue ads targeting each of the candidates, voters can expect to get fed up far sooner than normal.
