March 1 was “Super Tuesday,” the date when a large number of U.S. states hold primary elections. This year, 11 states and the territory of American Samoa held presidential nominating elections for both Republican and Democratic candidates while Alaska and Wyoming held caucuses for the just the Republican nominee. Five more states voted March 5 while on March 6, Maine held caucuses and Puerto Rico voters cast their ballots.
Normally, Republican candidates have the chance to win nearly half of the 1,237 delegates they need to secure the nomination, while Democrats can win nearly a third. More often than not, by the end of the week, a clear frontrunner has emerged, if not one already, as the other candidates are statistically eliminated from the field.
Prior to 2004, Arizona’s presidential preference primary was generally held in the weeks after Super Tuesday, making our state’s votes reenforcement of the frontrunner’s decisive lead. In 2004, Arizona joined with six other states to preempt Super Tuesday with a “Mini-Tuesday,” so as to emphasize the impact of our electorate on the race. In 2008, 23 other states followed suit by moving their election dates, creating a “Super Duper Tuesday,” the biggest Super Tuesday ever, which dulled Arizona’s overall impact on the race.
This year, Arizona is holding its presidential preference primary on Tuesday, March 22, which in any other cycle, would merely be a footnote to confirm the leading candidate’s eventual victory.
But with the tumult of this year’s campaign, Arizona comes back into play. Between now and March 22, expect to see presidential candidates visiting Arizona in an effort to win votes. Assuming no one drops out this week, expect U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio [Fla.] and Ted Cruz [Texas] and businessman Donald Trump to visit Phoenix and the Arizona-Mexico border. All three have used legal and illegal immigration issues to hit each other in debates, but none appear to understand the nuances of the immigration debate in Arizona, especially with the irony that resorts at which they stay or facilities at which they speak may have undocumented immigrant workers on staff.
When Trump visited Phoenix for a rally late last year, Arizona politicians went out of their way to decline invitations to attend. Now that he is the evidential frontrunner, it will be interesting to see who changes their tune in hopes of supporting the eventual nominee and who continues to evade him in hopes that the GOP establishment can eventually out-maneuver him with candidate potentially electable in the general election.
Neither former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton nor U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders [I-Vt.] appear to consider dropping out and will likely stay in until the convention itself, meaning they too could be seen in Arizona. Jill Stein is steamrolling to victory as the Green Party candidate.
While Northern Arizona is sparse compared to the Phoenix-Tucson corridor, candidates may choose a photo op on the rim of the Grand Canyon or in the red rocks of Sedona to highlight their appeal to voters in Arizona the West.
Only registered Republicans, Democrats and Greens will be eligible to vote for candidates in their party on March 22. Early ballots are in the mail.
Although the general primary is Tuesday, Aug. 30, registered independents and others will have to wait until Tuesday, Nov. 8, to cast votes for president.
